---
title: "Federal Contracting is Shrinking: How to Build a Pipeline that Wins in a Down Market"
description: Competition metrics reveal a market in transition
---

[AI-Powered Strategies for Capture & Business Growth ](https://winmorebd.ai/blog)

# [Federal Contracting is Shrinking: How to Build a Pipeline that Wins in a Down Market](https://winmorebd.ai/blog/federal-contracting-is-shrinking-how-to-build-a-pipeline-that-wins-in-a-down-market)

 Written by [Olessia Smotrova](https://winmorebd.ai/blog/author/olessia-smotrova) | Oct 23, 2025 10:44:12 AM

2025 is the hardest BD year in recent memory. Opportunities are down. Delays and cancellations are up. Waiting it out isn’t a plan.

Join our OST Global Solutions CEO, Dave Huff, for a one-hour working session on how to build a winnable pipeline in a down market—using human intelligence, targeted qualification, and disciplined capture.

**Date:** Wednesday, October 29, 2025  
**Time:** 12:00 – 1:00 PM

**[Register Today](https://events.teams.microsoft.com/event/42acbdd1-c399-4f86-bae7-f68a59954283@d8a320aa-f92e-4eb1-a94b-f35ed4291fcb)**

### What We’ll Cover

**The Market Reality:**

- Q3 federal solicitation volume down 74% vs. 2024 (56,929 → 14,807 in Jul–Aug).
- Contract cancellations/terminations up 11%+ (39,920 → 44,415 with four months left).
- Why these trends are likely to persist into mid-2026.

**The GovCon Catalyst Method:**

- Replace scrape lists with human intel from KOs, insiders, and incumbents.
- Align to your business model and past performance; stop chasing low-probability work.
- Manage pipeline across GWACs/IDIQs to future-proof task order flow.
- Produce actionable outputs: capture plans, incumbent analysis, gap assessments, and teaming strategies.

**Upcoming Vehicles & On-Ramps:**

- What to prepare now (scorecards, artifacts, teaming targets).
- How to decide which vehicles you actually need—and which to ignore.

**Execution Checklist (you can start this week):**

- 30-day winnable-opportunity sprint.
- Minimum data to green-light capture.
- Review cadence that keeps pipelines moving.

**Who should attend**

Founders, BD/Capture leaders, proposal managers, and executives responsible for growth in small and mid-size GovCon firms.

**Format**

Live webinar with Q&A. Recording sent to registrants.

**[Register Today](https://events.teams.microsoft.com/event/42acbdd1-c399-4f86-bae7-f68a59954283@d8a320aa-f92e-4eb1-a94b-f35ed4291fcb)**

**Why GovCon Catalyst**

- Human-intel qualified opportunities—not just SAM.gov scrape lists.
- On average, clients see 6–10 qualified opportunities/month aligned to strengths.
- Full-cycle support: pipeline, capture, teaming, proposal.
- Sources we’ll discuss: Bloomberg Government, GovWin, DOGE.

**Bonus for Attendees**

Become a GovCon Catalyst Partner within 3 months of the webinar and receive a free OASIS+ scorecard analysis to prep for GSA’s next on-ramp.

Questions? [Book a free consultation. ](https://calendly.com/ostglobalsolutions/bdconsulting)

[View full post](https://winmorebd.ai/blog/federal-contracting-is-shrinking-how-to-build-a-pipeline-that-wins-in-a-down-market)

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